Should South Ossetia fear a repeat of the August events: expert opinions

Sun, 07/08/2022 - 13:14

South Ossetia is marking another anniversary of the August 2008 hostilities. On the night of August 7-8, Georgia attacked the sleeping city of Tskhinval. As a result of the attack by the Georgian army, more than 1.5 thousand people and 67 Russian servicemen were killed.

Should South Ossetia be afraid of a repetition of the August events? What needs to be done to minimize such a risk, if any, experts, political scientists of the Republic explained in a commentary to IA “Res”.

Professor, Candidate of Politics, Head of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the South Ossetia State University Inal Sanakoev believes that the repetition of the August scenario is possible.

“As we know, the long-term Geneva process, due to the unwillingness of Georgia, did not lead to the conclusion of a long-term non-aggression pact. This means that we continue to be at war with Georgia. However, we must remember that Russia continues to be the most important deterrent in the region, which significantly reduces the potential risks and threats of Georgia's new aggression against South Ossetia,” Sanakoev said.

According to him, the state of war automatically assumes and obliges to constantly increase the level of defense capability of our Republic by all available means and methods.

He has added, that at the same time, we must also remain open to diplomatic interaction with the outside world, since sometimes effective diplomacy is much more effective than military action.

According to another expert, the head of the Media Center “Ir”, Irina Gagloeva, in a convenient geopolitical scenario, Georgia will again take actions to destroy South Ossetia.

She has noted that this is also evidenced by Georgia's unwillingness to recognize South Ossetia's right to its own choice.

“08.08.08. for Ossetia, these are not just numbers, it is a tragic symbol behind which there are the dramatic years of a brutal war, when faith in civilization and humanity collapsed, and international law and thousands of declarations on rights and freedoms turned into pieces of paper before our eyes. Georgia's war against South Ossetia was blazing with inhumanity and a desire to wipe out the Ossetians and everything that could remind of them.

Then the war was stopped. But everyone here understands that given a favorable geopolitical situation, Georgia will again take action to destroy South Ossetia. This is evidenced by the facts and, most importantly, the unwillingness of Georgia to recognize the right of South Ossetia to make its own choice,” Gagloeva has noted.

Another expert, Deputy Defense Minister Vadim Siukaev, says that for the current period, the likelihood of a new external military aggression against the Republic of South Ossetia is minimized, and the resumption of hostilities is unlikely.

“The military-political situation in the South Caucasus remains difficult. We see that the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has escalated again, our southern neighbor does not leave hope for the restoration of the so-called "territorial integrity" of Georgia. However, modern realities are such that after the 2008 August war and forcing Georgia to peace, the Russian Federation, a number of other states recognized the sovereignty and independence of the Republic of South Ossetia and the Republic of Abkhazia,” he has noted.

According to Siukaev, over the years, interstate relations have been actively developing between Russia and South Ossetia, including in the field of defense and security.

“In accordance with the Treaty of alliance and integration signed between the Russian Federation and the Republic of South Ossetia of March 18, 2015, a single security contour has been created, and the Russian Federation is a guarantor of peace on our land. Also, on the basis of interstate agreements, the Joint Military Base of the Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation, the Border Guard Service of the FSB of Russia are located on our territory. At the same time, the units are equipped with the most modern types and models of weapons and military equipment,” he has stressed.

Siukaev has also noted that the power structures of South Ossetia are in dynamic development and are ready to perform combat and other tasks in accordance with their intended purpose.

“Based on the foregoing, I believe that for this period the likelihood of a new external military aggression against the Republic of South Ossetia is minimized, and the resumption of hostilities is unlikely,” he has concluded.

Currently, Georgia is observing the development of the situation around Russia's special operation in Ukraine, an expert Inal Pliev told IA “Res”.

"While the events are developing favorably for Russia, Georgia will refrain from taking drastic steps. The confrontation against South Ossetia has moved from the overt (military) sphere into the sphere of covert struggle. We have to answer ourselves the question, are our ranks clean of people who are somehow connected with its special services? Do the patriots of Ossetia have any reason to be afraid of people who have reason to feel bound to Georgia by certain services and obligations?".

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