The hysteria of the antigovernmental unrests, accompanied by raids, mass fights and other unlawful actions, in theory, may spread also to the Transcaucasian republics, with the exception of South Ossetia and Ankhazia. This statement was made by Yana Amelina, head of the Caucasian sector of the Kazan Center of regional and ethno-religious studies, while commenting to IA "RES" on the possibility of repetition of the Near-Eastern scenario in Transcaucasus.
"All Transcaucasian states have a huge internal conflict potential, - said Amelina. – Mass discontent of the population with one or another action of the government or the leadership on the whole are characteristic for them, as well as with the corruption pierced society (we are now talking about Georia, though its leadership is trying naively to popularize Christmas-tale image of this state, which had allegedly got rid of this social evil), a vast gap between the poor and the rich layers of society in the incomes and the opportunities for self-actualization, as well as other social pests, creating the situation on revolution".
According to her, today we have all reasons to assume, that "in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia there are the first two signs of the revolutionary situation, but, unlike the states of the Arab East, the third sign is missing (according to a well-known definition of Lenin, it becomes revolutionary when the ruling class fails to maintain its domination unaltered, i.e. govern as it used to, when the lower classes do not want to live like that, and besides, there is "considerable rise in the activity, their readiness to independent revolutionary creativity")".
"The masses are not demonstrating noticeable activity yet, but let us not forget another thing – the external factor. It is a common knowledge that the first and the second waves of "orange revolutions" have overflowed the socialist, and then the post-soviet space not on their own, but with active participation of the foreign special services and NGOs. Since then their positions in Transcaucasus have only strengthened. Who and when will push the rotten wall of the authoritarian-oligarchic regimes (perhaps, it is only in Armenia that the authoritarianism is less, but there is sufficient oligarchism there), is worthless to guess – these processes are in many respects developing spontaneously, and which is even more important, quickly. We will live to see" – she stressed.
At the same time, Amelina thinks that the "revolutionary statements" are impossible only in South Ossetia and Abkhazia – quite young but successful states, which had earned independence and recognition paying a way too high price to recklessly follow the "democratic" processes.
