A repetition of August 2008 is impossible for a distant historical perspective,” said Gennady Kokoev, a South Ossetian political and economic expert.
“Until 2008, South Ossetia was almost completely unrecognized state, except for the recognition of us by fraternal Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic. After 2008, South Ossetia moved into the category of partially recognized states, which is considered, for example, Israel and other countries.
Now a repetition of August 2008 is impossible, but this should not calm us down and should not become a factor of complacency. The motivation of the Tbilisi authorities has not changed, it is not clear on what grounds they believed, and even more so, they now believe that South Ossetia is their land,” the expert said.
According to him, the basis for the conflict remains, it may come to naught after the official authorities of Georgia recognize the obvious fact and recognize the independence of South Ossetia.
“They are not going to do this, and not only because they themselves are convinced that South Ossetia is their land and we are their citizens, although this is not confirmed by any political grounds. But also because Western countries do not want to spread the influence of our strategic ally and partner, a reliable element of security in Transcaucasia - the Russian Federation,” Kokoev said.
He added that at the same time, a sharp exacerbation of the conflict in the form of armed actions should not be expected.
“We have concluded basic agreements with the Russian Federation for a period of 99 years, so any attack on South Ossetia is identical to the attack on the Russian Federation with all the ensuing consequences,” he explained.
As Kokoev noted, "Russia, as you know, does not start wars, but it stops them, as it happened in August 2008."
"South Ossetia needs to ensure the normal socio-economic and political development of statehood, to strengthen what has been achieved, to work for further recognition, and it's time to knock on the door of the UN in order to become its full-fledged member ...", - said the expert.
The expert has expressed confidence that the process of further recognition of the Republic of South Ossetia will continue.
“There is reason to believe that further recognition of independence will follow after Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, Syria,” Kokoev said.
According to him, the number of countries calling on Russia to cancel the recognition of the state independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is getting smaller.
“Every August, Western countries are sure to raise this issue, because in 2008 the entire Western civilization suffered a crushing defeat after the attack on South Ossetia, which was not guilty of anything towards the world community. Georgia tried to completely destroy the southern part of the Ossetian ethnos, it failed, and they were defeated. As practice shows, the United States never put up with defeat; it harbors anger and dreams of revenge. We cannot influence this, but we will probably need to work with them in any case through diplomatic, political and other contacts,” he said.
The expert believes that South Ossetia should use the potential of the recognition of the Republic more effectively and fully, use the wide opportunities for the development of both the economy and the political structure of the state.
