The Crimean bridge cannot be built! Or about the crisis of the expert community

Fri, 06/07/2018 - 14:02

In today's rapidly changing world, information is of great importance. Therefore, unscrupulous people have made information their weapons.
In recent years, many people have come to be called independent experts. It is regrettable, but not all of them are those for whom they give themselves out.
Very often, under the guise of an expert are hiding ordinary propagandists who serve the interests of various stakeholders. They use common cliches and demand their unconditional confidence in their materials. The expert, on the contrary, carefully shares his opinion, not agitating, but inviting to a dialogue.
The trust of the reader is important for the expert, and for the propagandist this has absolutely no significance.
It is often possible to see articles with accusations against Russia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The authors try to be persuasive, use well-known psychological techniques to make their words sound weighty, convincing, and inspiring confidence. Additional possibilities for this are provided by Youtube video hosting. Here, to increase credibility, it is also used various voice intonations, facial expressions, gestures and other non-verbal communication tools designed to create a trusting atmosphere between the speaker and the listener.
I found it right to take the opinions of famous experts about the event, the outcome of which is already known: the construction of the Crimean bridge.
I'll start with the popular Georgian journalist and expert Bacho Korchilava. He was a press attache of the Georgian Embassy in Kiev in 2005 - 2010, and now he is a journalist and talk show host on Ukrainian "Gromadske TV". His statement deserves to be quoted in full.
In October 2014 he wrote: "Dear Crimeans, adherents of the Russian world and simple cretinism! And tell me, please, do you still believe that in 2018 you will have a bridge across the Kerch Strait? Yes. Well, then, as Cat Matroskin said in the famous cartoon, "I congratulate you, Sharik, you're a booby." And why are you waiting for the bridge – you, boobies, now I will explain. The situation is as follows: the length of the bridge should be 18 km. All specialists unanimously say that this should be a very specific bridge. There are no such technologies in Russia. The leader in the construction of bridges of this kind by technology is Japan (already ha-ha-ha, that Japan will help Russia). Further on the specifics, specialists say that it is possible to build such a bridge only in the warm season (spring-summer). Further it is more interesting: per day with a superstructure and with huge budgets, one can build no more than 20 meters of this design. That is, at the simplest calculations, even if the bridge starts to be built in the spring of 2015 (before it will not work out), then it will be ready, at best, in 2022. But until 2022 you'll be singing a different tune. Well, now we come to the mirror, Crimeans-quilted jackets, and see the reflection of donkeys. Because I did not regret a week of my time to communicate with bridge builders, to open you the prospects and understanding that you are not only quilted jackets, but also donkeys. Yes, and then the oil also went down, so that guys, the bridge will not be built exactly :-))) "(with minor grammatical corrections - IP).
Here, to increase the persuasiveness of his statement, Korchilava used the following psychological techniques: a rhetorical question, a reference to authorities, attempts of some calculations, an invitation of the recipient to joint reflections (of course, strictly in the given speaking framework), half-truth. For example, in 2014 oil really began to get cheaper, and the rate of the Russian ruble - fell. However, the author did not take into account other objective economic processes that devalued the role of the preconditions in achieving the event predicted by him (the failure in the construction of the Crimean bridge). In the end, his forecast was not justified. The construction was crowned with success, a bridge 19 kilometers long was built, it took 227.92 billion rubles, and, what is especially valuable, under the conditions of sanctions. The expert Korchilava deleted his publication; however, it is available on a number of Internet sites in the form of a screenshot.
No less interesting material is the publications of other experts, also quite authoritative, with many titles, scientific, public and party regalia.
A Russian economist, sociologist and politician, the author of more than 300 works published in Russia, France, the United Kingdom and the United States, including 15 monographs, four of which have been translated into English, French, Japanese and Chinese, a member of the Scientific Council of the Russian Council for international affairs, the Chairman of the Supreme Council of the party "Civil Force", the laureate of the political prize "PolitProsvet", Doctor of Economics Vladislav Inozemtsev said: "Technically, it is impossible to build a bridge to the Crimea! It will never be, forget it. " He uttered the word "impossible" in syllables: "It's not possible, probably," so that listeners better understand the impossibility of building a bridge.
In general, the publication of a well-known Ukrainian expert and public figure, co-chairman of the Public Initiative "Rights from the Right" (in translation from the Ukrainian - "Right Cause" - IP), historian, lawyer Dmitry Snegirev is rather objective and reserved. He is a native of the Lugansk region: "Construction is seen as an element of laundering of budget funds. Therefore, we will see repeatedly the washings of piles, violations and shifts of tectonic platforms, which will justify additional funding for this unnecessary construction. " Here an expert, wanted to show himself more knowledgeable than in fact.
The Ukrainian political strategist, journalist, director of the personal and strategic consulting company Berta Communications, a member of the United Kingdom-Ukraine partnership network and the independent trade union of mass media workers of Ukraine, the master of international relations Taras Berezovets, who has quite categorically declared: "Russia does not have such technologies to build such a bridge. "
Let's listen to the expert further: "Russia does not have the technical means that the Germans had 70 years ago. This shows the technological backwardness of modern Russia, even from Germany 70 years ago. "
The political strategist continues: "This is mythologization, because nobody really wants to implement this project, and those whom the Kremlin forces it to do, the oligarchs, realizing that they do not have enough of their own budgetary funds, will not spend about fifteen billion rubles on the bridge. Therefore, they will (keep promising - IP) and warm people's hope, because people really believe. Once again I repeat: everything that we have - we have only mythologization. "
It sounds quite convincing: there are no technologies, Russia is backward, there is no money, and there is no place to take them from, it remains to lie forever that the process is on. In analyzing this statement, of course, one should pay attention to skillful manipulation of the data. The expert claims that fifteen billion rubles are required to build the bridge. For most people, this is an incredibly large amount. Many of them could believe that it really is beyond the power of the state budget. The author skillfully exploits the image of the oligarchs, formed in the mass view. And, he does it convincingly enough. The expert's arguments seem credible. However, we already know that in fact, 227.92 billion rubles were spent on the construction of the bridge, which, as we can see, is entirely up for the state budget of Russia. And already in the light of this knowledge all the most "convincing" arguments of the expert lose their luster and appear inconclusive.
Let's listen to the opinion of Yuri Medovar, a well-known Russian scientist, senior researcher at the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, member of the Yabloko party, candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences: "Mr Putin promised to build the Crimean bridge by 2018, but, as we can see, by 2018 it will not be built. " This statement is quite consistent with the same logic: there is mythologization, deception, Putin promised a bridge by 2018, but there will not be any bridge.
We listen further: " It was very difficult to go through the expertise in the USSR, where there were real aces, experts with colossally capital A (I'm serious). They wrapped it up. Why? There is a very complex geology. Very complex geology. There's mud volcanism, there are six aquifers, and plus everything there is karst. Where, as everyone now explains, we will beat the piles? Guys, nothing can be beaten there: it's the sea, plus 80 meters of bottom sediments." Here, too, interesting demagogic techniques were used: a reference to authorities, moreover, of the times of the USSR (!), Scientific, in this case - geological terms: mud volcanism, aquifers, karst, bottom sediments. Then there is a listing of the facts with a violation of the cause-effect relationship with the purpose of presenting the consequences of other factors for compromising the criticized actions that have no bearing on these consequences.
At the bottom of the Kerch Strait there are really colossal bottom sediments. But the expert did not say that modern construction science has the technical capabilities to successfully solve this really serious problem, and it is no longer an insurmountable obstacle.
Let's consider further the evaluation of the expert Yuri Medovar.
"The example of Rostov - there two bridges collapsed. Another better example is, returning to our sheep, Borisoglebsk. I saw it myself. There they built a bridge, and it collapsed, and killed the one who stood under it ... "
The bridges, which the expert speaks of, actually went out of order, but did not collapse. On one of them was destroyed the pedestrian part on the extent of about twenty meters, it was quickly and easily repaired. And the other was exploited for about 60 years and sagged because of a structural defect (it is built on obsolete technology, long withdrawn from service).
These details would show that they cannot serve as proof of his thesis. For this reason, he preferred to keep silent about them.
Let`s listen to the president of the analytical center "Politika", and, in addition, the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, political scientist Igor Popov: "In Russia they like to pay silly money for technical documents, conclude contracts, lay the first stones, cut ribbons and write off huge sums. Therefore, it is natural that such a construction of the century as the Kerch bridge is where you can dig into huge sums without starting construction. "
This expert speaks with confident intonation. Listening to him, even now, when the bridge is a fait accompli, involuntarily one is in doubt. Corruption exists, yes, who does not know about it, it is everywhere and always, which helps the author to further strengthen his position. Well-argued, however, but as we see, at the same time, it is false.
The record of brevity on the statements about the impossibility of building the Crimean bridge is established by the well-known Ukrainian historian and publicist, candidate of history, the author of 2 and co-author of 5 books on the past of Crimea and Ukraine, named after Jerzy Giedroits, political scientist Sergei Gromenko, who confidently stated, summarizing the numerous arguments: "No matter how much Russia invested money in the construction of the bridge, it will never be built."
There have been hundreds of such publications in recent years. Dozens of respected, intelligent, educated people, experts with academic degrees, scientific titles and other numerous regalia with unshakable confidence claimed that the Crimean bridge could not be built.
There will be no Crimean bridge. And what 19-kilometer bridge, besides also with a bilateral railroad, can build anout-of-the-way regional beggar country-gas station, Upper Volta with missiles, the economy of which is torn to shreds by US and EU sanctions?!
But, there is one small discrepancy: the bridge is built, and is in operation.
But which of the esteemed experts are interested in such trifles?
Automobile traffic for cars with a permissible maximum mass of not more than 3.5 tons was opened on May 16. For trucks, the opening is expected in October. The launch of the railway transport is scheduled for December next year.
The choir of experts who approved the impossibility of building the Crimean bridge, reminded other choruses: the impossibility of holding the Olympics in Sochi and the failure of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. The Olympics were held for a long time, the bridge is built, and the Championship is successfully going. Every day thousands of new and new articles are launched into the information space, which talk about how everything is bad in Russia and its allied states, which contain accusations against Russia and its allies. But they need to believe no more than the loud and confident statements about the impossibility of the Crimean bridge, accusations of not intending to build a bridge, but to plunder budget funds.
The same is the price of the "objective" experts the accusations of doping, involvement in the fall of the Malaysian Boeing, in the case of the Scrypals, in the events in Syria, and so on.
I want to finish the article with what I started. Unfortunately, in the context of international political confrontation, we are witnessing a crisis in the quality of expert assessments, which are published in numerous sources of information - both in status-based media, in personal and business blogs and social networks.
Yes, experts can also make mistakes, but not in such quantities. The error of an individual expert is one thing. And the delibarate and mass use of the subjects of the expert community for propaganda, or, as they say, to promote certain political attitudes, especially false judgments and unrealistic forecasts, is quite another thing.

Inal Pliev, international affairs expert, specially for IA «Res»

Мой мир