The parliamentary elections held in Georgia last weekend has reflected the socio-political and economic processes that have been developing in this republic with varying intensity since 2008, according to the South Ossetian expert Yuri Vazagov.
According to him, it can be stated with certainty that numerous segments of the Georgian population preferred to extend the mandate of the ruling party, fearing the anti-Russian rhetoric characteristic of the radical pro-Western segment of the Georgian political class.
“It is obvious that many in Georgia continue to remember what the rabid Russophobic antics and aggressive nationalism brought the country to in its time,” he has noted.
Vazagov believes that the geopolitical factor associated with the gradual weakening of the West's influence has had a rather serious impact on the domestic Georgian context. And this, according to the expert, is a direct result of the struggle that Russia, China and a number of other countries are waging against the hegemony of the unipolar world, seeking from Western countries to abandon the policy of interference in the affairs of other states.
"That is why now in Georgia the coalition of pro-Western forces, despite the unprecedented mobilization of resources, has not managed to immediately achieve the desired result, unlike the situation in 2003, when the opposition triumvirate led by Mikheil Saakashvili, with the support of the West, managed to remove Eduard Shevardnadze from power quite easily. The geopolitical changes that have occurred since then have noticeably limited the ability of the Western countries and international organizations to achieve their goals by any means necessary," Vazagov said.
Otherwise, he continued, instead of even critical, but nevertheless, quite restrained comments from official representatives of the Western community, punitive measures would have already fallen upon the Georgian Dream.
As for the further development of the situation in Georgia, the expert has noted, taking into account the voting results, several probable scenarios are clearly emerging.
“The first scenario, the most constructive and productive for the Georgian statehood, will become possible after the recognition of the election results by the opposition forces that have overcome the 5% barrier.
With more than 60 mandates in hand, the united opposition can quite effectively convey its voice to voters, constantly keeping the authorities on their toes. However, at the moment, such an option is unlikely, since the Georgian opposition has proven its inability to monotonously work consistently without constant squabbling and permanent splits,” the expert has emphasized.
The endless chanting of slogans about the importance of European integration and liberal chants cannot replace the painstaking work to solve the problems of the ordinary people, Vazagov has noted.
“In many regions of Georgia, opposition parties have suffered a complete failure, since they have not appeared on the ground for years and months. Now they can only accuse the authorities of fraud and ballot stuffing. Rallies and demarches are the most understandable and convenient method for them to attract the attention of both the Western public and their own electorate,” he has noted.
The second scenario concerns the continuation of the current line of the opposition on refusing to participate in the work of the new parliament, Vazagov has added.
In his opinion, it is possible that such tactics are aimed at provoking a parliamentary crisis in order to achieve new elections - such a scenario is currently being actively considered by the Georgian lawyers from among the opposition supporters.
“However, there are no guarantees that in the event of new parliamentary elections, the opposition will be able to surpass the results obtained on October 26. Rather the opposite. The "Georgian Dream", which has administrative resources and large financial opportunities, will take into account the mistakes made and will try to get even more votes," the respondent said.
And finally, the third and most dramatic scenario, according to Vazagov, concerns the attempts to carry out a coup d'etat. This is exactly what the Georgian mercenaries in Ukraine are now actively calling on the opposition leaders to do.
"Nationalist militants criticize the leaders of the opposition parties for their indecision and demand that the government be overthrown. It is easy to assume that the implementation of their plans will lead either to the collapse of Georgia as a state, or to tough force measures by the authorities with all the ensuing consequences," the expert has emphasized.
Vazagov has noted that the development of the events in the coming weeks will provide an answer to the question of which scenario the opposition will choose. At the same time, he added, it should also be taken into account that much in the internal Georgian situation will depend on how the ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations end and on the outcome of the elections in the United States.
